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On Earnings & Autopilot Portfolio Changes
On continues to be a no-brainer stock at this price.
Travis Hoium
November 13, 2025
I mentioned a few weeks ago that I’ve launched the Asymmetric Portfolio on Autopilot, a platform that allows you to passively follow the Asymmetric Portfolio.
There are a few differences from the Asymmetric Portfolio that are notable, and that’s why I made some changes today.
Autopilot is a fixed portfolio with a % allocation to each stock (adding to 100%), not a portfolio I add money to each month like the Asymmetric Portfolio on the newsletter.
As a result, I will periodically change allocations in the portfolio, rather than make monthly changes to copy the newsletter portfolio, which would result in 20+ taxable transactions for every investor.
Since I’m not adding cash each month, I’m keeping a small portion of the portfolio in a yielding ETF, called $SCHO ( ▼ 0.04% ) . This allows me to deploy capital opportunistically.
If you want to get Asymmetric Portfolio returns passively, you can check it out 👇️.
Today, I want to go over On Running’s $ONON ( ▼ 1.19% ) results and explain some Asymmetric Portfolio changes I made on Autopilot.
On Running’s Results
On is one of the more confusing companies to follow on the market because it reports in Swiss Francs. So, when the Franc is strong and the dollar is weak, as it is today, it “looks” like results are worse than expected on a revenue front, and there can even be mark-to-market losses on USD sitting in U.S. banks.
That’s why it’s important to look at the constant currency numbers and not just headline numbers, as you can see in the growth rates below.
Net sales increase by 24.9% year-over-year, and by 34.5% on a constant currency basis, reaching CHF 794.4 million.
A 34.5% growth rate is absolutely astounding, especially when you consider how poorly other brands like Nike and Lululemon have performed.
And On isn’t growing by discounting products. In fact, it’s raising prices in many cases and has said it will continue to do so in the U.S. if there are tariff impacts. A 60% gross margin goal seems downright low at this point.
Reflecting operational efficiencies, the strength of On’s premium positioning, and favorable foreign exchange effects, gross profit margin reaches a new high of 65.7%, up 510 basis points year-over-year. This includes a one-off positive impact of approximately 200 basis points related to lower-than-anticipated freight and other costs. Disciplined cost control, coupled with focused investment in high-return areas, drives an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.6%. This corresponds to CHF 179.9 million in absolute adjusted EBITDA, up 49.8% year-over-year. Net income margin increased to 15.0%, up from 4.8% in the prior year.
To top it off, On expects to grow faster and be more profitable than their own previous guidance.
Net sales: Expected to grow by 34% year-over-year on a constant currency basis (previously at least 31%). At current spot rates, this corresponds to reported net sales of CHF 2.98 billion (previously CHF 2.91 billion).
Gross profit margin: Expected to be around 62.5% (previously 60.5-61.0%).
Adjusted EBITDA margin: Expected to be above 18.0% (previously 17.0-17.5%).
On was my biggest stock buy in November 2025 because I thought it was a steal given the great fundamentals. And now, fundamentals are even stronger.
This is a stock that could easily double in a few months when the sentiment around shares changes. It’s one of the few stocks moving higher today, and that’s a testament to its fundamentals and value.
On continues to be one of my favorite stocks today, and I would love to buy even more if shares dip on macroeconomic concerns in the near future.
Autopilot Portfolio Changes
The following portfolio changes were made on Autopilot yesterday. I’ll send out these updates to premium members in the future, and they will go out in the Autopilot app as well.
🔼 $ONON ( ▼ 1.19% ) : I increased the allocation to On’s shares to 8%. It’s a phenomenal company, and the valuation at under 2x Nike’s P/S ratio is absolutely crazy given a 30%+ growth rate. I could see the stock doubling or more in the next year.
🔼 $DUOL ( ▲ 1.64% ) : Unloved by the market because there’s the potential for disruption from AI. But the 2 main use cases for Duolingo — learning as a hobby and learning to get a job — are not going away with AI. If you’re looking to get a dual language job at a restaurant in France or Brazil, AI isn’t going to help. The numbers are too strong to ignor,e and this is now a more meaningful 4% of the portfolio as of yesterday.
🔽 $SPOT ( ▲ 0.68% ) : I cut Spotify to 4.5% of the portfolio, still a meaningful position, but an EV/sales multiple of 6.5x and forward P/E multiple of 50x is high for a company that grew revenue at 12% over the past year and has fewer margin expansion levers to pull than it did two years ago. I love Spotify, but the price warrants a lower allocation.
🔽 $SOFI ( ▲ 1.82% ) : Like Spotify, SoFi has been a huge winner with shares up over 100% this year, which is why I cut the allocation to 5%. Consumer weakness is creeping into the economy, and I don’t love SoFi’s P/B ratio of 4.4x or forward P/E multiple of 58x. SoFi has earned an overweight allocation, but it’s time to take some profits.
Feel free to respond with questions/comments. I will be hosting a live Q/A next week, so look out for an email about that.
And let me know if you have any questions about Autopilot.
Disclaimer: Asymmetric Investing provides analysis and research but DOES NOT provide individual financial advice. Travis Hoium may have a position in some of the stocks mentioned. All content is for informational purposes only. Asymmetric Investing is not a registered investment, legal, or tax advisor or a broker/dealer. Trading any asset involves risk and could result in significant capital losses. Please, do your own research before acquiring stocks.
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