The Gemini Moment

As an investor, I think it’s a huge advantage to live in the Midwest, out of the spotlight and hype of the East or West Coast.

We’re never first to adopt the next big thing, but we don’t often get caught up in hype either.

So, the market’s assumption that ChatGPT will “win” AI has confused me all year. Sure, people in tech seem to use ChatGPT like it’s an always-on personal assistant, but do regular people? And if they do use it at all, are they using it in a way that will make OpenAI money?

Data doesn’t support OpenAI/ChatGPT’s dominance being set in stone. OpenAI expects to burn a whopping $115 billion through 2029. Without unlimited funding from VCs and big tech, ChatGPT is unsustainable.

And the big news this week is that ChatGPT isn’t even the most popular app to download in the App Store. Alphabet’s $GOOG ( ▲ 2.45% ) Gemini is now a more popular new download than ChatGPT on iOS devices. This is a Gemini Moment!

More on that in a moment.

The market continued to ride high this week, helped by Oracle’s $ORCL ( ▼ 6.69% ) pop, which I’ll touch on below.

The Asymmetric Portfolio has been in something of a holding pattern as the market bids up hype again. That’s not where I’m invested, which will pay off long-term, even if it hasn’t the last few weeks.

In Case You Missed It

Here’s some of the content I put out this week.

• Execution Matters: I love a great strategy, but without execution, it means nothing.

• The Biggest Innovation of our Lifetimes: Changing transportation changes the world.

• The Math Behind Asymmetric Investing: Asymmetric Investing is built on limited risk and unlimited upside in stocks.

The Gemini Moment

When ChatGPT came out, it took the world by storm. Within two months, the app had 100 million users.

Google seemed to be caught off guard. The big tech company had cash, but could no longer innovate or launch new products.

The default assumption has been that ChatGPT will continue to dominate AI chatbots and become the next big tech innovation. But the normies don’t seem to be as excited about ChatGPT as early adopters. And now Gemini has topped the charts on the App Store.

It’s a Gemini Moment!

Data from Similarweb backs up Gemini’s momentum. Power users are still using ChatGPT more, but new downloads favor Gemini.

What if this momentum holds?

What if Gemini’s monthly active users continue to grow faster than ChatGPT?

It’s not only plausible, it’s likely.

I showed the Apple App Store rankings above, and the other ecosystem is Android, which is owned by Alphabet. There’s no reason to think Gemini wouldn’t do even better there.

Then there’s the models themselves. Gemini 2.5 Pro is nearly as good as GPT-5, according to third-party analysis. But Google puts OpenAI to shame when it comes to images and video. If you think the future is chatbots, OpenAI has a shot. But if you think image and video are important, Alphabet takes the top spot by a mile.

Alphabet is one of the top stocks in the Asymmetric Portfolio, so I’m happy to see Gemini doing well. But the bigger story may be about OpenAI, which is holding up the market, despite still being a private non-profit.

OpenAI’s Astronomical Growth Projections

OpenAI’s hype has now spilled into the broader market, and it’s time to pay attention to how it could impact the broader market long-term.

This week, Oracle’s $ORCL ( ▼ 6.69% ) stock was up 22% and Larry Ellison became the richest person in the world, at least for a moment, because of OpenAI.

Oracle announced a whopping $317.5 billion increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO), which are supposed to be a measure of backlog. That kind of demand boosted Oracle, but it also means NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC, and many others in the data center business will have ample demand for years to come as capacity is built out. As many people said this week, AI demand is off the charts! 

And there’s a lot of demand, but the details of the demand at Oracle matter.

OpenAI amounted to $300 billion of the $317.5 billion increase in RPO for Oracle.

How did OpenAI, which is expected to have under $20 billion in revenue this year, sign such a big deal? Well, they expect revenue to grow exponentially.

It makes sense that the leading AI company expects explosive growth. But does $200 billion in revenue in 5 years pass the smell test?

For perspective, that’s about what Google makes on search each year.

$200 billion is more than what Meta Platforms, Chevron, General Motors, or JPMorgan Chase generate each year.

$200 billion is also $25 per year from every person on earth.

It’s possible OpenAI can generate that kind of revenue. But it’s also possible they don’t.

And if Gemini is taking share of new users in 2025 as Alphabet pours $85 billion in capex this year and billions more into AI research, there’s a risk that Alphabet’s momentum continues, stunting OpenAI.

If OpenAI’s growth slows or funding gets harder to come by, Oracle, Microsoft, Nebius, CoreWeave, and even NVIDIA may see lower than expected demand. The AI bubble may burst.

The economy could even tank. According to new data, nearly half of GDP growth in the U.S. was driven by AI investment.

Expectations for AI are high, and if OpenAI doesn’t see explosive growth, there will be disappointment elsewhere in the market.

Maybe Ellison was too busy counting his money to hear the news that OpenAI is losing momentum to Google’s Gemini.

For us normies, the news wasn’t all that surprising. ChatGPT is great, but Gemini is catching up, and it’s easier/cheaper to use more advanced features.

Given how much investors have riding on up and to the right AI demand, driven by OpenAI, this seems like a big deal to me!

Disclaimer: Asymmetric Investing provides analysis and research but DOES NOT provide individual financial advice. Travis Hoium may have a position in some of the stocks mentioned. All content is for informational purposes only. Asymmetric Investing is not a registered investment, legal, or tax advisor, or a broker/dealer. Trading any asset involves risk and could result in significant capital losses. Please do your research before acquiring stocks.