Buying Dips, Catching Knives & Blowing Up
Buying Dips, Catching Knives & Blowing Up
Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund blew up today. We can all learn something.
Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund blew up today. We can all learn something.
There's a new FTC lawsuit against Hims & Hers, which is why the stock is down ~15%.
The lawsuit seems pretty weak to me as someone who has used Hims. And the remedies at worst seem like a slap on the wrist.
Thoughts from any lawyers in the room?

AI stocks are down again. The market is starting to ask the questions I’ve been asking for months.
I wonder if the worry is Microsoft or another hyperscalers will cut capex, or indicate slower growth in 2027, this week?
Travis, loved the video with the Oscar CEO a few months ago. Curious why you haven’t opened a position yet.
Is there a return on AI?
It was a good week, no matter what the market said.
The CEO leaving didn't help.
Bumble trajectory has been downwards for a while, is there still any hope?
Also curious if you have #Veeva (a cloud-based software for the life sciences industry) in your radar. Thx.
Those companies--for whatever nebulous reasons--I am most enthusiastic about in the mix you have put together, Travis. I know you have a ten-year time frame for the companies in your portfolio to go up 10 fold, but what if you are a constitutionally impatient man too amped up on caffein to linger for ten years? (Sort of a joke, sort of real). How long does your crystal ball say that the market will finally see ONON's earnings as real dollars as opposed to the foreign currency they report in? How long before everyone sees Owlet's products at their niece's house and says, "Hey, cool monitor, who makes that?" Etc. I am a Peter Lynch fan and he says it can take a while before what we perceive in a company and what the market perceives can be two very different time horizons. So I guess I've answered my question. But your thoughts on it?
Tesla reported earnings last night. With your special holdings in TESLA (long term puts), can you speak to what you saw and still see? How is a put at risk with talk about merging TESLA with Space-X? Thx, Joel
Ask your questions in a comment to this post below, and I'll answer them live you YouTube. Hope you can join!
Alphabet's $GOOG results are out. Call starts in a bit and I'll add more thoughts after I listen but here's my initial takeaway:
1. Cloud growing over 80% is crazy.
2. The rest of the business was fine, but nothing great.
3. FCF now negative...
Stock is flat after hours. I think most of this was expected.
https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026q2-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf
https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026q2-alphabet-earnings-slides.pdf
Curious if folks think Netflix is an asymmetric opportunity at this point. Ryan Henderson on the chit chat pod had a pretty good take on how Netflix is likely an AI winner. Seems compelling but I’m curious what anyone thinks about the YouTube threat.
Oracle's cost of debt (yield shown below) and equity (falling stock price) are making it more expensive to build data centers.
At the same time, equipment costs are rising (memory and chips), and debt is piling up.
I've been saying this for months, but this is what a downward spiral looks like for a company. Having to go back to the market for more and more money at worse and worse terms is a bad business model!
Interesting report about a new chip from Google. Part of Gemini would be embedded into the chip, and the estimated output would be 6-10x more per watt of power.
I still think it's underappreciated how much effort/energy is going into the efficiency side of AI right now. This chip isn't due until 2028, but given Google's capex and this chip, could it increase token capacity 10x annually? Will this lead to a lower cost per token/answer? What does that do to existing business models?
I continue to think cost will be a major driver in the future, and Google has the incentive and infrastructure to win on cost. If AI is a commodity, that's a good thing.
My 2c. Thoughts?
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/20/alphabet-googl-stock-ai-chip-report.html

Big buybacks could get these companies off the mat.
Can the spending keep going up?
Very excited for the new features. Thanks for adding this and giving the community an expanded role. Cheers!
A big announcement from Asymmetric Investing.
Interesting acquisition for Uber. $13.7 billion price tag.
FCF is improving, but I don't love Uber levering up the business. Strategically, it's probably a good move because it has adjacent markets all over the world.
I'll write more about the deal this weekend.
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