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- Hims & Hers: Taking the Long-Term View
Hims & Hers: Taking the Long-Term View
Management is pushing all the right buttons to be a disruptor in healthcare.
Hello from a train somewhere between Paris and Epernay, France. As I mentioned on Sunday, publishing will be a little light/chaotic this week. Back to our regular schedule next week.
The Hims & Hers earnings report once again had something for everyone this week. Revenue growth picked up sequentially, but margins fell, and the stock has been up and down ever since.
One of the things we’re seeing is a more “normal” growth rate. You can see below that some of the GLP-1 growth from Q3 2024 to Q1 2025 was temporary in nature. But if you cut out that growth, the growth rate looks much more stable.

This continues to be a company we need to look at with a long-term lens, which rides out the short-term volatility in the stock. Everything is intact for this to be a 10x stock over the next decade; it’ll just take time to get there.
The Novo Nordisk Bombshell
Disclosure of discussion with Novo Nordisk to bring Wegovy and a new oral solution to market was news the market liked. Remember, this is the same company that a few months ago accused Hims & Hers of illegal compounding and sued a number of telehealth companies (notably not Hims & Hers). Novo’s lawsuits have not gone well, and you can see below that weight loss revenue has stalled out.

If you’re a longtime reader, you know this isn’t surprising at all. I have long theorized that owning demand is the key to Hims & Hers’ success, as it was for Netflix, Google, Amazon, and so many other digital companies.
We have seen time and again on the internet, demand is the point of power, and suppliers must give concessions to reach that demand.
Novo is going to see Hims & Hers as a way to hit the “Easy Button” on growth. And innovative new companies are seeing Hims & Hers as an ideal partner from launch.
As we noted in our earnings release, we are in active discussions with Novo Nordisk to make Wegovy injections and once FDA approved Novo's oral Wegovy available through our platform to continue advancing consumer options. Earlier in the quarter, we announced a partnership with Marius Pharmaceuticals, which will allow our customers to access one of the few FDA-approved oral testosterone treatments in 2026. We expect these solutions, combined with consistent provider support and the ability to seamlessly track hormone levels via the Hims app can help redefine how millions of men access effective hormonal care. And most recently, we made a strategic investment in GRAIL, the company behind what we believe is the most advanced multi-cancer early detection test on the market.
This is the Hims & Hers long-term strategy playing out. They are winning demand, and now suppliers will help fuel growth by enabling more specialties, which will create more demand.
Generally, I think breadth and assortment and choice for patients is the winning formula. So we're excited to be able to reengage with Novo about the Wegovy pill that is hopefully to be FDA approved as well as the commercial dosing. I think they and others will have more and more innovation coming. There's also obviously advancements in biotech that are in Phase II and Phase III trials that have next-generation GLP-1, GIP dual and tri-agonist opportunities. So our stance is that breadth and assortment and choice ultimately gives each individual more personalized abilities to just have great outcomes. And so you'll see us continue to pursue a wide range of treatments here. I think generally, it's inevitable that partnerships like this where we are the largest consumer distribution platform in health care and others are the best in bringing new therapeutic innovations to market, those types of companies should be working together ultimately. So I think you're going to see more of that in the ecosystem, but it's definitely something that we have a lot of brain power on and are making sure that as advancements in the next generation comes, we have great relationships with the teams and they understand the opportunities that we can have together.
Suppliers are coming to the table, and that’s good news for Hims & Hers.
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Revenue Growth
As I mentioned above, revenue growth has returned sequentially, with more growth expected ahead.

In Q4, management expects $605 million to $625 million in revenue with $55 million to $65 million in adjusted EBITDA. Annually, that’s a growth rate of 28% at the midpoint and a sequential growth rate of 2.7%.
The growth rate may not seem impressive on the surface, but management has a history of beating guidance, including in Q3 (guidance was for $570-$590 million in revenue).
With growth from testosterone, menopause, lab testing, and longevity expected in 2026, I think a growth rate of over 30% is achievable, and analysts are still only expecting growth of 19.4% based on management’s 2025 guidance.
Margins
What Hims & Hers is sacrificing right now to expand the business is margins.
Gross margins declined over two points quarter-over-quarter to 74% as tailwinds from continued growth in non-weight loss specialties were offset by lower intra-quarter revenue recognized per shipment from certain weight loss offerings due to shorter shipping cadences. G&A costs were also pressured as a result of the ZAVA integration, as well as additional expenses related to the hiring of new leadership talent. G&A as a percentage of revenue increased two points year-over-year. A similar dynamic was seen in operations and support costs. Technology and development costs as a percentage of revenue increased nearly two points year-over-year to 7%, reflecting ongoing investment in engineering and product talent across the organization. We expect to continue investing in this area over the coming quarters as these initiatives enhance the customer experience and drive long-term financial returns.
We believe these investments will pay back over the mid to long term in the form of reduced costs from greater efficiency, but more importantly, through unlocking new growth factors for the company in the future. Our priorities center around long-term free cash flow generation, and each of the investments we are making today set the foundation for greater free cash flow generation in the future.
You can see the trends in the chart below. But keep in mind, Hims & Hers is in investment mode and generating positive free cash flow. This is hardly a money-losing business, hoping to get to free cash flow positive someday.

Historically, trading profits today for growth and much higher profit potential in the future is a good one. I think that’s the case for Hims & Hers, and if the company gets momentum with some of its new products next year, that would give license for even more investment.
Subscriptions on the Horizon?
Maybe the biggest news long-term is Him & Hers advancing at-home blood testing. This is another trend toward democratizing healthcare. The democratization of products and services is a theme you’ll see on Asymmetric Investing.
We plan to launch comprehensive whole body lab testing before year-end, which will represent a significant step forward in this evolution. By scaling capabilities like blood testing, we're thrilled to help more customers affordably access the insights they need to monitor, maintain and improve their overall health. We envision these capabilities empowering consumers to proactively address health concerns such as vitamin deficiencies, unoptimized hormonal levels and genetic risk factors while also identifying early indicators of more serious conditions like cancer and cardiovascular disease. Historically, people have come to us to manage existing conditions. Soon, we'll help them take a more proactive role in managing their health and in doing so, can potentially impact millions of lives. Our goal is to one day help identify and manage risks associated with heart disease, metabolic disorders, neurodegenerative diseases and cancer, long before symptoms appear. We believe our platform is uniquely positioned to make this possible. We have the lab testing capabilities to give customers and providers deeper health insights. We have the provider network and compounding infrastructure in place to help take action against those insights, and we have a strengthening data feedback loop that can help measure, adapt and refine care at scale. We believe that combination positions Hims & Hers to do what few others in health care can, turn data into tailored action for millions of people.
And this won’t just be a one-off testing product. It could enable more specialties like longevity.
In response to a question about lab testing, Dudum said:
I mean this is a set of tests that historically cost me and my family upwards of anywhere from $5,000 to $10,000 for this type of comprehensive testing, and we'll be bringing it to market for an absolute fraction of that cost. So really an incredibly powerful opportunity for true equalization for anybody out there to be able to get a sense of where their body is at, where their family is standing and the people that they love, making sure that they're getting ahead of any issues that they're unaware of. I think this testing lays the foundation for the longevity specialty that we mentioned, which, again, is a really exciting new category. This specialty will be coming to market in 2026, and will include a really wide range of treatments from on-market peptides, coenzymes, GLP, GIP treatments, all that will be designed and blended with performance, recovery, cardiometabolic longevity markers as the core optimization of choice.
The question is, how do you bring this to market? I think that’s where the hiring of Deerja Kaur from Robinhood could be critical. She helped design Robinhood’s Gold subscription and may bring a similar product to Hims & Hers.
Subscriptions that include annual testing and preventative care could be a massive new growth business and build an enduring relationship with customers. It’s the kind of market expansion I love to see.
If you look at one quarter at Hims & Hers, there may be reason for concern. But put on a multi-year (or better yet multi-decade) lens on the business and the company is pulling the right levers. It’ll be a bumpy ride, but this stock still has 100x (yes, I said 100x) potential over the next 10-20 years. I expect to be a shareholder for a very long time.
Disclaimer: Asymmetric Investing provides analysis and research but DOES NOT provide individual financial advice. Travis Hoium may have a position in some of the stocks mentioned. All content is for informational purposes only. Asymmetric Investing is not a registered investment, legal, or tax advisor or a broker/dealer. Trading any asset involves risk and could result in significant capital losses. Please, do your own research before acquiring stocks.
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