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Fine, I'll Do It Myself!
Buybacks are now a weapon against undervalued stock prices.
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The tension has been palpable this earnings season as certain CEOs are fed up with this market.
They’ve shown demonstrated cash flow.
They’ve outlined growth plans.
They’ve given rosy guidance.
And the stock market doesn’t care.
I’m not talking about the CEOs of darlings like NVIDIA or Dadadog. I’m talking about the CEOs of old, boring companies General Motors and MGM Resorts.
As all things artificial intelligence go 🚀 , shares of GM and MGM are floundering, despite solid 2023 results and great guidance for 2024.
Management is throwing up their hands and saying out loud what they often say behind closed doors.
“If the market won’t value our stock like we think it should, we’ll do the dirty work ourselves.”
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When Enough Isn’t Enough
The frustration in GM’s conference call was almost laughable. Management said automotive free cash flow would be $8 billion to $10 billion in 2024 and GM is holding its own in the auto market. Despite what you hear on social media, GM is far from going bankrupt.
Yet, shares can’t get above a 5x price to earnings or FCF multiple.
A $10 billion accelerated buyback program announced in November, which helped reduce the share count by over 17% in 2023, has helped push shares 21.4% higher. But multiples stayed flat after the buyback and GM can’t seem to get a better multiple from the market. So, management is taking control of the situation.
During the conference call, Barra highlighted the cash flow and buyback plan being executed.
All of this success contributed to full year EBIT adjusted of $12.4 billion and adjusted auto free cash flow of $11.7 billion in 2023, which brings our total to more than $22 billion for '22 and '23. Almost 2/3 of that cash is being returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, including the impact of the $10 billion accelerated share repurchase program that we announced in November. Through the ASR, we immediately retired 215 million common shares in the fourth quarter. Our current share count is less than 1.2 billion, and we are working to reduce this even further to less than 1 billion common shares outstanding, which would be about 600 million fewer than at our peak.
And CFO Paul Jacobson was even more explicit, essentially saying GM would buy back stock with any cash balance over $20 billion.
We began 2023 with $24 billion of auto cash and marketable securities, generated full year adjusted auto free cash flow of $11.7 billion and returned approximately $12 billion to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, including the impact of the $10 billion accelerated share repurchase program initiated in Q4. Coming into 2024, we are well positioned with roughly $20 billion of auto cash and marketable securities. And we'll appropriately balance our capital allocation priorities with the plan to continue to return capital to our shareholders through repurchases and our new higher dividend rate.
…
I think the balance sheet is in really good shape. And there's no change to our stance of, call it, $18 billion or about $20 billion of cash on hand…That's kind of been our floor/targeted range. Obviously, we've carried quite a bit more than that over the last few years as we dealt with some of the uncertainty. But as we imagine -- or as we said in November when we announced the share repurchase with a lot of that uncertainty behind us, lower CapEx spending, we felt comfortable operating at that lower balance. So $18 billion to $20 billion feels very comfortable as the targeted range.
Given auto free cash flow of up to $10 billion and a market cap of $45 billion, it’s possible GM could buy back over 20% of shares outstanding in 2024 if management wants to get aggressive.
Frustration in Las Vegas
A similar strategy is brewing in Las Vegas where MGM Resorts thinks its stock is undervalued.
Excluding the cash that we keep on hand to operate our business, in keeping with our policy, we have $1 billion in excess cash, which will be allocated to international and digital acquisitions, high ROI capital projects, and share repurchases. We continue to see great value in our shares. And during the year, with a $2.3 billion repurchase of our shares, we reduced our share count by 14%. To close, I would briefly like to discuss our enterprise valuation and why we still believe share repurchases are a remunerative use of our capital. Consider the following. As of yesterday, our share price was $47, and we had 320 million shares outstanding. This equates to a market capitalization of $15.1 billion. And if we add our quarter end domestic net debt and subtract the market value of our 56% stake in MGM China and analyst consensus estimates for the value of our 50% of BetMGM, then we have the enterprise value of our operations less China and BetMGM of $10.6 billion. Divide this by our 2023 EBITDA adjusted for corporate expense, and we calculate an implied current trailing trading multiple of just 4.9x. We think this multiple represents a discount to the value that we see in our future cash flows, which provides us further conviction in returning capital to shareholders by repurchasing our shares at these levels.
MGM Resorts has $1 billion in dry powder ready for buybacks and generated $1.8 billion in free cash flow in 2023. Given the ongoing recovery in Macau and strong trends in Las Vegas, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that MGM Resorts will generate $2.5 billion in free cash flow in 2024 and could buy back $3.5 billion in stock. That’s over 20% of shares outstanding.
Despite these aggressive plans, MGM’s stock dropped 8% after earnings. 🤷
Buybacks As a Weapon
Both GM and MGM Resorts are frustrated because their stock prices aren’t increasing as much as management believes they should. And what can they do besides take matters into their own hands?
Buybacks have become a weapon against undervalued stock prices.
And I’m here for it.
Disclaimer: Asymmetric Investing provides analysis and research but DOES NOT provide individual financial advice. Travis Hoium may have a position in some of the stocks mentioned. All content is for informational purposes only. Asymmetric Investing is not a registered investment, legal, or tax advisor or a broker/dealer. Trading any asset involves risk and could result in significant capital losses. Please, do your own research before acquiring stocks.
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